Apple Market Share 2026 Forecast: iPhone to 25%, iPad Near 40%, Mac to 12% — Dealer Plays to Capture the Upgrade Wave
- Wireless Dealer Group
- 2 hours ago
- 3 min read
Apple just raised prices on some iPads and MacBooks, which never feels great for consumers. But a new Counterpoint Research forecast suggests Apple’s momentum is still strong — and 2026 could be a market share record year for iPhone, iPad, Mac, and Apple Watch.
Dealer takeaway: When Apple gains share while the overall market softens, it usually means two things for dealers: (1) more iPhone upgrades still happen, and (2) the best margin opportunities come from attach (cases, screen protection, chargers) and trade-in/upgrade planning.
Smartphones: Apple can “win” even with flat iPhone volume
Counterpoint projects Apple’s iPhone sales will remain flat in 2026 compared to 2025. Normally that wouldn’t sound like a victory — but the key is what’s happening to everyone else.
With “most” other major players reportedly facing double-digit declines in shipments, Apple’s smartphone market share is projected to rise from 23% to 25%. That would likely put Apple in a more comfortable lead over Samsung by year-end 2026.
The report suggests Apple can still lead the market in 2026 whether or not a foldable iPhone Ultra launches by the end of the year.
Tablets: iPad dominance could get even bigger (near 40% share)
Even with recent iPad price increases, Counterpoint reportedly expects Apple to grow both iPad volumes and share in 2026. The forecast says almost four in ten tablets sold worldwide this year could be iPads.
Models expected to drive demand include:
M4-powered iPad Air duo (highlighted as likely exceptionally popular)
last year’s iPad Pro (M5) models
refreshed base iPad and iPad mini expected by end of 2026
Dealer angle: iPads are a strong “add-on sale” to iPhone upgrades for families, students, and small business customers — especially when paired with accessories.
Computers: Mac share to 12% (up from 9%) while the laptop market shrinks
Counterpoint projects Apple’s computer market share will reach 12% in 2026, up from 9% in 2025. The report also projects Mac shipments could grow 23% year over year, even as the overall laptop segment is expected to decline by 11%.
The MacBook Neo is called out as a likely standout performer.
Dealer angle: Even if you don’t sell Macs directly, Mac growth typically correlates with higher iPhone ecosystem stickiness — which can reduce churn and increase accessory attach.
Wearables: Apple Watch share to 23% (SE 3 + Ultra 3 called out)
Counterpoint projects Apple Watch share could rise from 20% in 2025 to 23% in 2026, with the Apple Watch SE 3 and Apple Watch Ultra 3 expected to perform well.
The article notes Apple may set record shares in smartphones/tablets/laptops, but not necessarily in smartwatches — even though the overall smartwatch market is projected to grow slightly (about 1%).
One interesting note: wearables may be less impacted by memory chip price increases, so the Apple Watch Series 11 and Apple Watch Ultra 4 may not see the same price pressure as other devices.
WDG Dealer Play: The Apple “Upgrade + Attach” checklist
Upgrade ladder: value iPhone → Pro → ecosystem (Watch/iPad)
Trade-in talk track: “Let’s reduce your out-of-pocket and keep your monthly predictable.”
Attach bundle: case + screen protector + fast charger (one-click bundle pricing)
Second device pitch: iPad for kids/school/work + hotspot/backup connectivity
Set a 12-month check-in: lock in retention before the next launch cycle
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Bottom line
The Counterpoint forecast suggests Apple market share 2026 could hit record levels across iPhone, iPad, and Mac — with Apple Watch also improving share. For dealers, the play is to ride the Apple upgrade wave with a clear upgrade ladder, aggressive accessory attach, and trade-in planning that keeps customers in your store instead of shopping online.
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